Prediction of plasma ctDNA fraction and prognostic implications of liquid biopsy in advanced prostate cancer.

No consensus strategies exist for prognosticating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Circulating tumor DNA fraction (ctDNA%) is increasingly reported by commercial and laboratory tests but its utility for risk stratification is unclear. Here, we intersect ctDNA%, treatment outcomes, and clinical characteristics across 738 plasma samples from 491 male mCRPC patients from two randomized multicentre phase II trials and a prospective province-wide blood biobanking program. ctDNA% correlates with serum and radiographic metrics of disease burden and is highest in patients with liver metastases. ctDNA% strongly predicts overall survival, progression-free survival, and treatment response independent of therapeutic context and outperformed established prognostic clinical factors. Recognizing that ctDNA-based biomarker genotyping is limited by low ctDNA% in some patients, we leverage the relationship between clinical prognostic factors and ctDNA% to develop a clinically-interpretable machine-learning tool that predicts whether a patient has sufficient ctDNA% for informative ctDNA genotyping (available online: https://www.ctDNA.org ). Our results affirm ctDNA% as an actionable tool for patient risk stratification and provide a practical framework for optimized biomarker testing.

Multiregion sampling of de novo metastatic prostate cancer reveals complex polyclonality and augments clinical genotyping.

De novo metastatic prostate cancer is highly aggressive, but the paucity of routinely collected tissue has hindered genomic stratification and precision oncology. Here, we leveraged a rare study of surgical intervention in 43 de novo metastatic prostate cancers to assess somatic genotypes across 607 synchronous primary and metastatic tissue regions plus circulating tumor DNA. Intra-prostate heterogeneity was pervasive and impacted clinically relevant genes, resulting in discordant genotypes between select primary restricted regions and synchronous metastases. Additional complexity was driven by polyclonal metastatic seeding from phylogenetically related primary populations. When simulating clinical practice relying on a single tissue region, genomic heterogeneity plus variable tumor fraction across samples caused inaccurate genotyping of dominant disease; however, pooling extracted DNA from multiple biopsy cores before sequencing can rescue misassigned somatic genotypes. Our results define the relationship between synchronous treatment-sensitive primary and metastatic lesions in men with de novo metastatic prostate cancer and provide a framework for implementing genomics-guided patient management.

Early On-treatment Changes in Circulating Tumor DNA Fraction and Response to Enzalutamide or Abiraterone in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: Androgen receptor pathway inhibitors (ARPI) are standard of care for treatment-naïve metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), but rapid resistance is common. Early identification of resistance will improve management strategies. We investigated whether changes in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) fraction during ARPI treatment are linked with mCRPC clinical outcomes. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Plasma cell-free DNA was collected from 81 patients with mCRPC at baseline and after 4 weeks of first-line ARPI treatment during two prospective multicenter observational studies (NCT02426333; NCT02471469). ctDNA fraction was calculated from somatic mutations in targeted sequencing and genome copy-number profiles. Samples were classified into detected versus undetected ctDNA. Outcome measurements were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Nondurable treatment response was defined as PFS ≤6 months. RESULTS: ctDNA was detected in 48/81 (59%) baseline and 29/81 (36%) 4-week samples. ctDNA fraction for samples with detected ctDNA was lower at 4 weeks versus baseline (median 5.0% versus 14.5%, P = 0.017). PFS and OS were shortest for patients with persistent ctDNA at 4 weeks (univariate HR, 4.79; 95% CI, 2.62-8.77 and univariate HR, 5.49; 95% CI, 2.76-10.91, respectively), independent of clinical prognostic factors. For patients exhibiting change from detected to undetected ctDNA by 4 weeks, there was no significant PFS difference versus patients with baseline undetected ctDNA. ctDNA change had a positive predictive value of 88% and negative predictive value of 92% for identifying nondurable responses. CONCLUSIONS: Early changes in ctDNA fraction are strongly linked to duration of first-line ARPI treatment benefit and survival in mCRPC and may inform early therapy switches or treatment intensification. See related commentary by Sartor, p. 2745.